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Commodity Update: Beef

Revised Herd Size Estimates

• The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revised its beef herd size estimate for June last year to 27.8 million head, up from the previous estimate of 24.4 million head, due to new modelling techniques and data sources.


• This revision aligns ABS estimates with those of Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA), impacting calculations of greenhouse gas emissions by beef animals.

Feedlot Data

• Record levels of cattle on feed in Australian feedlots with 1,354,747 cattle reported for Q1 2024, a 4.7% increase from Q4 2023.


• Queensland saw a 7% increase in cattle on feed, making up nearly 60% of national feedlot numbers.


• Feedlot utilization rose from 81% to 85% nationally, with Queensland and South Australia nearing full capacity at 90% and 96%, respectively.

Cattle Slaughter and Export

• Total cattle slaughter for Q1 2024 was 1,811,300 head, with 42% finished on grain.


• Beef export volumes eased by 7% into June 2024 but were strong in Q2, with 325,417 tonnes shipped, 26% higher than the same period last year.

Top Beef Export Destinations

• USA: Q2 exports totaled 87,264 tonnes, the strongest since Q2 2015, up 71% from Q2 2023.


• Japan: 72,777 tonnes shipped in Q2, 36% higher than Q2 2023.


• China: 43,453 tonnes exported in Q2, 22% below Q2 2023 levels.


• South Korea: 48,969 tonnes shipped in Q2, setting a new quarterly record.

Producer Share of Retail Spend

• The beef producer share of domestic retail spend rose to over 35% in Q1 2024, the highest since Q2 2023.

Commodity Update: Sheep

Sheep Turnoff Ratio (STR)

• The STR increased to 13.7% at the end of Q1 2024, close to the 14% threshold indicating a shift to flock liquidation.


• MLA forecasts slim flock growth of 0.6% for 2024.

Sheep Transfers

• Significant volumes of sheep are moving from Western Australia to eastern states, with January to May 2024 seeing a total of 673,571 head transferred, 458% higher than 2023.

Global Sheep Meat Market

• The global export flock has declined from 400 million head in the 1990s to just over 255 million head.


• Despite the declining flock, demand for sheep meat remains strong, especially in China, the top importer.

Sheep Meat Exports

• Combined lamb and mutton export flows eased by 20% in June 2024 but were 7% higher in Q2 2024 than in Q1.


• Q2 exports to the USA were up 47% from Q2 2023.

Commodity Update: Wheat

Market Volatility

• Wheat market experiences highest volatility from May through August.


• CBOT wheat futures for December rose significantly due to concerns about Russian production.

Australian Wheat Production

• Improved weather conditions increased the projected wheat crop for Australia, with NSW expected to produce 9.8 million tonnes, a 38% increase from last year.

Wheat Prices

• Wheat prices in Australia have risen, with Western Australia trading at a premium over the eastern states.


• Basis levels have dropped due to increased production forecasts.

Contact Information

Bowyer and Livermore are a founding member of the Roundtable agents collective. 

Bowyer and Livermore

• 
  
  
  
  • Bathurst, NSW
  
  
  • Contact: (02) 6331 5166
  
  
  • Website: bandl.com.au
  
  
  
  

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